Des signes de reprise de l'immobilier aux USA?

Bon bon, c'est sûr, la période n'est pas follichonne: il pleut non-stop (se présenter en rendez-vous en bottes en caoutchouc, c'est pas top, mais c'est pourtant comme ça que ça va se terminer), le marché immobilier est littéralement tétanisé par les évènements électoraux en cours (non, nous ne parlerons pas des candidats ici :)), et on entend "crise économique" toutes les deux phrases.

Et si on cherchait de bonnes nouvelles de l'autre côté de l'océan?

L'effondrement du marché immobilier américain a été le gros déclencheur des évènements qui ont secoué l'économie mondiale depuis l'été 2007. Et depuis 5 ans, la communauté financière désespère de le voir rebondir.

Or, il semble que les premiers signes de reprise de l'immobilier américain soient là.L'indice NAHB, qui est l'indice de confiance des promoteurs immobiliers dans la perspective du secteur, est monté à 28 points au printemps, bien au-dessus de son score de juin 2011 (13 points), et surtout à son plus haut niveau depuis juin 2007 (soit 6 mois avant l'entrée officielle des USA en récession).

Autres signes prometteurs: le nombre de permis de construire délivrés est à son plus haut niveau depuis octobre 2008, le stock de maisons invendues vient de tomber au plus bas depuis 2006.

Ces signes de reprise du marché, même s'ils sont encore fragiles, sont très positifs pour l'économie américaine, qui est très impactée par la santé de l'immobilier. En effet les américains s'endettent sur la valeur des actifs qu'ils détiennent, qui sont très largement immobiliers; la baisse des prix de l'immobilier a donc énormément impacté leur capacité d'emprunt, et donc leur consommation.

Espérons donc que cette reprise se confirme, et qu'elle ait un effet domino de la même façon qu'en 2007...

 

 

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